AECC AP(600893) 民生证券·2025-04-02 09:29Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its long-term development potential [5][3]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 47.88 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 39.5% to 860 million yuan due to increased R&D expenses and unanticipated stock disposals [1][3]. - The transition period between old and new models is expected to pressure short-term performance, with a projected revenue of 47.66 billion yuan for 2025, remaining stable compared to 2024, but with a forecasted net profit decline of 31.2% [3][4]. - The company is increasing its R&D investment significantly, with total R&D expenses reaching 1.05 billion yuan in 2024, a 72.1% increase year-on-year, to support future product development [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 21.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.8%, but the net profit dropped by 65.7% to 134 million yuan [1]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 decreased by 1.0 percentage points to 10.1%, and the net profit margin fell by 1.4 percentage points to 2.1% [1][2]. - The company’s financial expenses increased by 84.3% to 460 million yuan, primarily due to a rise in debt levels [1]. Product Segmentation - Revenue from aviation engines and related products grew by 10.0% to 44.99 billion yuan, while the gross margin decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 9.5% [2]. - The foreign trade export revenue increased by 6.5% to 2.07 billion yuan, with a gross margin improvement of 5.3 percentage points to 19.7% [2]. - Non-aviation products and other revenues saw a significant decline of 24.9% to 200 million yuan, with a gross margin decrease of 1.3 percentage points to 18.4% [2]. Future Projections - The company is expected to see net profits of 597 million yuan in 2025, 1.066 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.572 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 164x, 92x, and 62x respectively [4][3]. - The projected revenue growth rates for the next few years are expected to be -0.4% in 2025, 10.8% in 2026, and 9.8% in 2027 [4][10].