YADEA(HK:01585) ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2025-04-02 09:55Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is expected to be 28.236 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.8% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.272 billion yuan, down 51.8% year-on-year. The decline is attributed to a temporary vacuum in demand due to safety incidents and increased adaptation costs during the transition to new national standards [1][2] - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of 0.22 HKD per share plus a special dividend of 0.23 HKD, totaling 1.368 billion HKD, which represents 99.6% of the net profit for 2024, highlighting its commitment to shareholder returns [2] - The industry outlook is positive, driven by the "old-for-new" policy and new national standards, which are expected to boost demand and optimize supply dynamics [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 15.2%, a decrease of 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to inventory clearance and product structure adjustments. The total expense ratio was 11.70%, reflecting a rise in costs amid declining revenues [2] - The sales volume for 2024 was approximately 13.0205 million units, a decrease of 21.2% year-on-year, with electric bicycles accounting for 69.8% of total sales [1] Industry Outlook - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to continue and strengthen through 2025, with average subsidies ranging from 500 to 1000 yuan, leading to an acceleration in replacement demand [3] - The new national standards will raise entry barriers for the industry, benefiting compliant and responsive companies like the report's subject, which is well-positioned to capture market share [3] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on product innovation and brand positioning, with new high-end models launched to attract specific consumer segments, including women [4] - The company is expanding its overseas presence, with factories in Indonesia and Vietnam starting operations, and plans to enhance its retail footprint in Southeast Asia and Europe [9] Profitability Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 41.307 billion yuan, 49.770 billion yuan, and 56.923 billion yuan, respectively, with expected growth rates of 46.3%, 20.5%, and 14.4% [10] - The net profit forecast for the same period is 3.207 billion yuan, 3.808 billion yuan, and 4.377 billion yuan, with growth rates of 152.0%, 18.7%, and 14.9% [10]