CEA(600115) 民生证券·2025-04-02 11:06Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for China Eastern Airlines (600115.SH) [4][6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 132.1 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16.2%, and a reduced net loss of 4.23 billion yuan compared to a loss of 8.17 billion yuan in 2023 [1][4]. - The report highlights effective cost control, particularly in unit fuel costs, which decreased by 6.7% year-on-year, contributing to the reduction in losses despite a 4.2% decline in overall seat revenue [2][4]. - Future aircraft fleet growth is projected at a net increase of 4.5% annually over the next three years, with specific delivery numbers outlined for 2025-2027 [3][4]. - The company is optimizing its debt structure, which has led to a decrease in financial expenses, and is expected to benefit from a recovering demand and lower oil prices [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 132.12 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 16.1% [5][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to improve significantly, reaching 1.94 billion yuan in 2025, 3.47 billion yuan in 2026, and 5.18 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 48.4%, 146.0%, and 78.4% respectively [5][10]. Cost Management - The unit fuel cost has been effectively controlled, with a year-on-year decrease of 8.7% in fuel prices, and the unit cost remaining stable compared to 2019 levels [2][4]. - The company has issued 5 billion yuan in perpetual bonds, reducing the asset-liability ratio to 85.03% and decreasing interest expenses by approximately 1 billion yuan [4][5]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a net increase of 34, 51, and 28 aircraft in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with the main aircraft type being the A320 [3][4]. - The report projects a positive outlook for profitability driven by macroeconomic recovery and the resumption of intercontinental routes [4][5].