Zhongtai Securities(SH:600918) Zhong Tai Qi Huo·2025-04-02 11:46Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The demand side has seen some improvement, and the fundamentals are basically stable. The futures market shows no obvious contradictions and is generally in a volatile market. However, as the delivery date approaches and the first round of warehouse receipt registration is due, attention should be paid to the influence of emotional capital. In the short term, the market is expected to remain volatile under the current real - world contradictions. It is crucial to focus on the downstream start - up and port inventory levels. [17] Summary by Directory Part 1: Log Overview Supply - side - Foreign supply: In the week of March 28, 2025, the number of arriving ships was 17, a decrease of 2 compared to the previous week; the arrival volume was 33.43 million cubic meters, a decrease of 8.52 million cubic meters. The import volume of coniferous logs was 181.71 million cubic meters, an increase of 16.71 million cubic meters compared to the previous month, but a 7% year - on - year decrease. The import volume of radiata pine was 126.00 million cubic meters, an increase of 17.00 million cubic meters compared to the previous month, with a 1% year - on - year increase. It is expected that the arrival volume in China will remain stable with a slight increase in March and April [7]. Demand and Inventory - side - Demand: The weekly shipment volume nationwide was 46.90 million cubic meters, an increase of 2.0 million cubic meters compared to the previous week. The downstream apparent demand has recovered to a certain extent. Although the terminal real - estate start - up rate has decreased month - on - month, the demand remains stable in the short term. - Inventory: The inventory of radiata pine was 332.5 million cubic meters, a decrease of 5.0 million cubic meters compared to the previous week; the inventory of spruce was 25 million cubic meters, a decrease of 8.8 million cubic meters. Overall, the inventory shows a slight accumulation trend due to the increase in arrivals and relatively weak downstream demand [9]. Price and Spread - Price: The FOB price of radiata pine decreased by 5 US dollars per cubic meter to 116 US dollars per cubic meter; the FOB price of spruce remained unchanged at 121 euros per cubic meter. The spot price of logs has started to decline weakly under the situation of strong supply and weak demand. The price of wood planks remained stable this week. - Spread: The spot spread is relatively stable. As of last Friday, the futures market was at a premium of 39 yuan per cubic meter to the 3.9m medium - grade A radiata pine (spot measurement) and at a discount of about 35 - 45 yuan per cubic meter to the 3.9m medium - grade A radiata pine (national standard measurement) [11][13]. Cost and Profit - Cost: The import cost of radiata pine was 1050 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 9 yuan per cubic meter compared to the previous week; the import cost of spruce was 1123 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 9 yuan per cubic meter. - Profit: The import profit of radiata pine was - 63 yuan per cubic meter, a decrease of 22 yuan per cubic meter compared to the previous week; the import profit of spruce was - 93 yuan per cubic meter, a decrease of 9 yuan per cubic meter. Overall, the profit of logs and wood planks is expected to show a weak trend [15]. Strategy Recommendation The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term. It is recommended to focus on the downstream start - up and port inventory [17]. Part 2: Log Balance Sheet The report provides a log balance sheet from August 23, 2024, to March 28, 2025, including data on arrivals, shipments, inventory, and supply - demand differences [19][20]. Part 3: Log Supply - Demand Analysis Supply - side - New Zealand log shipment volume: No specific data presented in the provided content. - Log import: No specific data presented in the provided content. - Import by tree species: No specific data presented in the provided content. Demand - side - Log daily shipment volume: No specific data presented in the provided content. - Real estate: No specific data presented in the provided content. Downstream Analysis - Wood plank analysis - Price: No specific data presented in the provided content. - Wood plank analysis - Profit: No specific data presented in the provided content. - Downstream substitutes - Aluminum alloy analysis: No specific data presented in the provided content. Inventory - side - Inventory - Summary: No specific data presented in the provided content. - Inventory - By tree species: No specific data presented in the provided content. - Inventory - By region: No specific data presented in the provided content. Part 4: Cost and Profit The import cost and profit of logs are analyzed, but no specific data is presented in the provided content. Part 5: Log Price and Spread Analysis Log FOB Price The FOB prices of radiata pine and spruce are analyzed, and relevant price trends from 2024 to 2025 are presented [83][84][85][86][87][88]. Seasonality of Radiata Pine and Spruce Prices The price seasonality of radiata pine and spruce is analyzed, but no specific data is presented in the provided content. Seasonality of Radiata Pine and Spruce Spreads The spread seasonality of radiata pine and spruce is analyzed, but no specific data is presented in the provided content. Basis between Radiata Pine and LG The basis between radiata pine and LG is analyzed, but no specific data is presented in the provided content. Seasonal Chart and Inter - monthly Spread of LG Main Contracts The seasonal chart and inter - monthly spread of LG main contracts are analyzed, but no specific data is presented in the provided content.