GWMOTOR(601633) 国投证券·2025-04-02 12:34Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 39.80 CNY per share, maintaining the rating [4]. Core Views - The March sales figures met expectations, with a total wholesale volume of 98,000 units, showing a year-on-year decrease of 2% but a month-on-month increase of 26% [1][2]. - The decline in year-on-year sales is attributed to fewer new car launches in 2024, while the month-on-month growth is driven by recovering terminal demand and the launch of new models like the Tank 300 [2]. - The company is entering a new growth phase with the launch of several new models, which is expected to positively impact sales [3]. Sales Performance - In March, the company sold 25,000 new energy vehicles, a month-on-month increase of 66% and a year-on-year increase of 15%, while fuel vehicle sales were 73,000 units, showing a month-on-month increase of 16% but a year-on-year decrease of 7% [2]. - The Tank model sold 17,000 units in March, with a year-on-year decrease of 8% but a month-on-month increase of 48%, primarily due to the launch of the 2025 Tank 300 [2]. - The Haval brand sold 53,000 units in March, with a year-on-year decrease of 2% but a month-on-month increase of 22% [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see an upward sales trend as new models are launched, including the second-generation Xiaolong MAX and the new Gaoshan, which are anticipated to contribute to sales growth [3]. - The Hi4Z technology is expected to enhance the Tank model's appeal, potentially expanding its market reach and profitability [3]. - The company has a diverse product lineup and strong technological reserves, which are expected to drive growth in both domestic and export markets [10]. Financial Projections - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 167.2 billion CNY, 188.6 billion CNY, and 213.6 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 13.1, 11.6, and 10.2 times [10][11]. - The company's revenue is expected to grow significantly, with projected figures of 2,689 billion CNY in 2025 and 3,107.1 billion CNY in 2026 [11]. Market Position - The company has a total market capitalization of approximately 219 billion CNY and a circulating market capitalization of about 158 billion CNY [4]. - The stock price as of April 2, 2025, was 25.58 CNY, indicating potential upside based on the target price [4].