CGN POWER(003816) 国信证券·2025-04-02 12:45Investment Rating - The investment rating for China General Nuclear Power Corporation (003816.SZ) is "Outperform the Market" [5]. Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 86.804 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.16%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 10.814 billion yuan, growing by 0.83% [8][21]. - The company is experiencing growth in power generation, with a total output of 242.181 billion kWh in 2024, reflecting a 6.08% increase, despite a decline in average on-grid electricity prices and rising costs [8][19]. - The development of nuclear power units is proceeding in an orderly manner, with a total of 16 units under construction or approved for construction by the end of 2024, indicating a high certainty for the long-term development of the nuclear power business [2][19]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's nuclear power business revenue is expected to be 65.932 billion yuan, accounting for 75.96% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 5.46% [8]. - The average on-grid electricity price for 2024 is projected to be 0.4162 yuan/kWh, a decrease of 1.57% compared to the previous year [8]. - The cost per kWh for nuclear power is estimated at 0.2077 yuan, an increase of 0.0051 yuan from the previous year [8]. Future Projections - For 2025, the company anticipates a decline in net profit to 10.473 billion yuan, a decrease of 3% year-on-year, due to expected lower electricity prices [21]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is 88.784 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 2.3% [4][21]. - The company expects to maintain a steady increase in net profit in the following years, with estimates of 11.226 billion yuan in 2026 and 12.037 billion yuan in 2027 [21]. Operational Developments - The company has received approval for five nuclear power projects, totaling 11 units, with significant progress in construction schedules [2][19]. - The operational management of nuclear power units is expected to continue to grow, with new units coming online in the coming years [2][19].