MCC(SH:601618) Guotou Securities·2025-04-02 14:03Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a 6-month target price of 3.4 CNY, compared to the current stock price of 3.03 CNY [3]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 552.03 billion CNY for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 12.91%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.746 billion CNY, down 22.20% year-on-year [1][2]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to external factors such as decreased demand in the steel industry, sluggish growth in the construction sector, and deep adjustments in the real estate industry, along with internal business restructuring [2]. - The company’s operating cash flow improved significantly, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 7.848 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33.20% [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company’s revenue by segment was as follows: Engineering Contracting at 501.45 billion CNY (down 14.35% YoY), Specialty Business at 38.166 billion CNY (down 1.63% YoY), and Comprehensive Real Estate at 18.753 billion CNY (up 13.52% YoY) [2]. - The company’s gross profit margin was 9.69%, with a net profit margin of 1.43%, down 0.37 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Cash Flow and Expenses - The company’s expense ratio increased to 5.87%, with sales, management, financial, and R&D expenses rising year-on-year [2]. - The total impairment losses amounted to 9.734 billion CNY, reflecting an increase due to heightened risks in debt recovery from private real estate companies [2]. Order Book and Future Outlook - The company signed new contracts worth 12.5 trillion CNY in 2024, with overseas contracts amounting to 93.134 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 46.94% [7]. - The total backlog of orders at the end of 2024 was 27.6 trillion CNY, approximately five times the revenue for the year, indicating strong future revenue potential [7]. Earnings Forecast - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 567.78 billion CNY, 589.79 billion CNY, and 615.17 billion CNY, respectively, with expected net profits of 7.07 billion CNY, 7.47 billion CNY, and 7.96 billion CNY [8][10].