紫金矿业（601899）：业绩再创新高，估值中枢有望提升

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Zijin Mining is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a record high performance for 2024, with total revenue reaching 303.64 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 32.05 billion yuan, up 51.8% year-on-year [6][7] - The increase in revenue and profit is attributed to rising product prices (copper and gold prices increased by 10% and 24% respectively) and production growth (copper and gold production increased by 6% and 8% respectively) [6] - The company has a five-year plan aiming to achieve significant production targets by 2028, including copper production of 1.5-1.6 million tons and gold production of 100-110 tons [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 335.73 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.6% [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 39.89 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 24.4% [5] - The company expects to maintain a gross profit margin of 22.3% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 23.8% [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 1.50 yuan in 2025 [5] Production and Cost Control - In 2024, the company achieved a copper production of 1.07 million tons and gold production of 73 tons, with unit sales costs showing effective control [6] - The company plans to increase copper production to 1.15 million tons and gold production to 85 tons in 2025 [6] - The unit sales cost for copper decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, while the cost for gold increased by 3.4% [6] Project Development - The company is advancing multiple construction projects to enhance copper and gold production capacity [6] - Significant projects include the Timok lower zone and Kamoa copper mines, which are expected to significantly boost copper output in the coming years [6] Market Position and Outlook - Zijin Mining is positioned as a leading player in the copper and gold sectors, with substantial reserves and production capacity ranking among the top 10 globally [6] - The report anticipates continued price increases for copper and gold, supporting the company's growth trajectory [6]