高盛：全球_高盛经济指标更新_关税升高，增长放缓

Investment Rating - The report indicates a downward revision in the 2025 Global Real GDP Growth Forecast, now standing below consensus due to tariff-driven downgrades in the US and Euro Area [2][7]. Core Insights - The Global Financial Conditions Index (FCI) has tightened primarily due to short rates and equities, impacting growth forecasts negatively [6][22]. - The report highlights a significant decrease in growth forecasts across various regions, particularly in North America and Western Europe, with specific countries like Turkey showing an increase in growth projections [8][92]. - The Current Activity Indicator (CAI) for March shows a mixed performance, with the UK experiencing a decline while emerging markets like India and China show stronger growth [10][47]. Summary by Sections Economic Indicators - The report provides an update on global economic indicators, emphasizing the impact of higher tariffs on growth [1]. - The 2025 GDP forecast has been downgraded for the US and Euro Area, reflecting a broader trend of reduced growth expectations [2][7]. Financial Conditions - The Global ex Russia FCI has tightened, primarily influenced by short-term interest rates and equity market performance [6][22]. - The report details the contributions to the FCI changes, indicating a tightening trend across various financial metrics [23][26]. Growth Forecasts - The report outlines changes in GDP forecasts for 2025, with notable adjustments across multiple regions, particularly highlighting Turkey's positive revision [8][92]. - The CAI for March indicates a global average of +2.2%, with developed markets at +0.8% and emerging markets showing stronger performance [10][47]. Inflation Insights - The report discusses changes in inflation forecasts for 2025, with core inflation in Turkey projected to increase by 1.9 percentage points [88]. - Headline inflation in Russia is expected to rise by 2.8 percentage points, indicating significant regional variations in inflation expectations [88].