高盛：石油追踪_现货需求稳健，但未来下行风险增加

Investment Rating - The report indicates a short-term upside risk for oil prices while medium-term risks are skewed to the downside [1][3]. Core Insights - Brent prices have increased to the mid-70s per barrel due to solid spot demand and short-term supply risks from sanctions, outweighing US growth concerns [1]. - President Trump's potential imposition of secondary tariffs on Russian and Iranian oil could impact market dynamics, although the effectiveness of such measures remains uncertain [2]. - US economists have lowered the 2025 GDP growth forecast by 0.5 percentage points to 1%, raising the 12-month recession probability to 35%, which could affect global oil demand [3]. Supply and Demand Summary - Trackable net supply and demand remained flat week-over-week, with OECD commercial stocks decreasing by 2 million barrels to 2,747 million barrels [4][13]. - US Lower 48 crude production nowcast edged down by 0.1 million barrels per day to 11.3 million barrels per day, while Canada liquids production increased by 0.2 million barrels per day to 6.3 million barrels per day [13][15][18]. - Global visible stocks decreased by 5 million barrels week-over-week, indicating a tightening supply situation [4][13]. Price Dynamics - The Brent 1M/36M timespread is currently $2 per barrel below its inventory-implied fair value, suggesting potential price adjustments [4][12]. - The average crude basis has rallied by 1.2 percentage points week-over-week, indicating stronger physical demand relative to futures prices [12][43]. - Brent implied volatility remains low, standing 10 percentage points below its fair value, reflecting a stable market environment [12][49]. Geopolitical and Market Trends - Despite weak consumer sentiment, US gasoline demand remains resilient, with significant crude volumes exported from Russia primarily to India and China [8][12]. - Northwest-Europe net refining margins are above seasonal averages, boosted by strong US refining outages [12][46]. - The report highlights ongoing imperfect compliance with OPEC+ production cuts, which could influence future supply dynamics [22].