JIN LEI(SZ:300443) Guotou Securities·2025-04-02 15:38Investment Rating - The investment rating for Jinlei Co., Ltd. is "Buy-A" with a 6-month target price of 26.5 CNY [4][8][12] Core Views - The wind power industry is expected to experience a significant recovery in 2025, which will likely lead to an increase in both volume and price for Jinlei Co., Ltd. [1][8] - The company reported a total revenue of 1.967 billion CNY for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.11%, but a net profit of 173 million CNY, down 58.03% year-on-year [1][8] - The first quarter of 2025 is projected to show a substantial rebound in net profit, estimated between 50 to 56 million CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 70.96% to 91.47% [1][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's gross and net profit margins were 21.33% and 8.78%, respectively, down 11.71 percentage points and 12.38 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company expects significant revenue growth in the coming years, with projected total revenues of 2.37 billion CNY, 2.82 billion CNY, and 3.51 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 20.4%, 19.1%, and 24.5% [8][12] Market Dynamics - The wind power industry is anticipated to see a high increase in installed capacity, with estimates of 105-115 GW for 2025, which corresponds to a growth rate of 63.9% to 145.9% [1][2] - The average bidding price for wind turbines in China is expected to stabilize and recover, which will positively impact the company's product pricing and profitability [2][8] Business Segments - Jinlei Co., Ltd. is a leading manufacturer of wind power shafts and has expanded its production capabilities for casting products, achieving a year-on-year increase of 71% in revenue from wind power casting products [2][8] - The company has successfully diversified its free forging business into new downstream sectors such as shipping, mining, energy, and cement, maintaining a good capacity utilization rate [11][12] Future Outlook - The company has implemented an employee stock ownership plan to enhance operational vitality, with performance targets set for revenue and net profit growth [7][8] - The projected net profit for 2025 is expected to be 340 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 96.2% [12]