国泰君安（601211）：业绩超预期大幅增长，看好合并后发展前景

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [7] Core Views - The company has reported a significant increase in performance, with Q4 2024 revenue reaching 109 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 71.4%, and a full-year revenue of 336 billion yuan, up 18.4% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q4 was 35 billion yuan, up 368.9%, and for the full year, it was 130 billion yuan, an increase of 38.9% [1][5] - The self-operated business has shown strong resilience, with Q4 self-operated revenue of 40.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 191.6%, and an annual revenue of 147.7 billion yuan, up 61.8% [2] - The brokerage business has also seen substantial growth, with Q4 brokerage revenue of 33.9 billion yuan, up 101.0% year-on-year, driven by increased market activity [3] Summary by Sections Self-Operated Business - In Q4 2024, the self-operated business generated revenue of 40.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 191.6% increase year-on-year. The annual revenue reached 147.7 billion yuan, up 61.8%. The financial asset scale for 2024 was 520.5 billion yuan, a 10.2% increase from the previous year [2] Brokerage Business - The brokerage revenue for Q4 was 33.9 billion yuan, a 101.0% increase year-on-year, with an annual revenue of 78.4 billion yuan, up 15.5%. The average daily trading volume for stock funds in Q4 was 20,684 billion yuan, a 119.3% increase year-on-year [3] Investment Banking Business - The investment banking revenue for Q4 was 11.2 billion yuan, a 9.1% increase year-on-year, but the annual revenue decreased by 20.8% to 29.2 billion yuan due to stricter regulatory policies affecting underwriting volumes [3] Asset Management Business - The asset management revenue for Q4 was 10.3 billion yuan, a 6.0% increase year-on-year, while the annual revenue decreased by 5.0% to 38.9 billion yuan. The non-monetary public fund management scale increased to 485 billion yuan, a 28.4% year-on-year increase [4] Credit Business - The credit business revenue for Q4 was 7.9 billion yuan, down 33.9% year-on-year, and the annual revenue was 23.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.9%, primarily due to regulatory restrictions on margin financing [5] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the successful merger, with revised profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 showing net profits of 164 billion yuan and 171 billion yuan, respectively, indicating a year-on-year growth of 25.9% and 4.3% [5]