hbky(600985) Changjiang Securities·2025-04-02 23:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Views - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.855 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 1.369 billion yuan year-on-year, representing a decline of 22.0%. The net profit for Q4 2024 was 716 million yuan, down 450 million yuan year-on-year and down 488 million yuan quarter-on-quarter [2][6] - The cash dividend declared is 2.02 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 41.6%, which is a decrease of 1.7 percentage points year-on-year. Based on the closing price on March 28, the dividend yield is 5.7% [2][6] - The company anticipates a multi-point growth driven by increased coal production, improvements in chemical products, coal power advancements, and the establishment of non-coal mines. The commitment to dividends enhances the long-term value [2][6] - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 3.33 billion, 4.03 billion, and 4.12 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 10.7x, 8.9x, and 8.7x based on the closing price on March 28. The expected dividend yields for the same years are 3.9%, 4.7%, and 4.8% [2][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, coal production and sales decreased, with production at 4.88 million tons and sales at 3.49 million tons, down 6.6% and 13.6% year-on-year, respectively. The average selling price for coal in Q4 was 1,052 yuan per ton, up 2.5% year-on-year [11] - The company’s total revenue for 2024 was 65.875 billion yuan, with a gross profit of 12.145 billion yuan, representing a gross margin of 18% [17] Coal and Chemical Business - The coal chemical segment faced challenges, with Q4 2024 ethanol prices declining, impacting profitability. The company’s focus on increasing the production of ethanol and other chemical projects is expected to improve chemical profitability in the long term [11] - The company plans to enhance its coal production capacity with the expected resumption of operations at the Xinhu Mine and the completion of the Tao Hutu Mine by the end of 2025 [11] Dividend Policy - The company has announced a shareholder return plan for the next three years, increasing the dividend payout ratio from 30% to 35%, which is expected to enhance the bottom-line expectations for dividends [11]