Tianneng Battery (SH:688819) Guoxin Securities·2025-04-03 01:05Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][24][25] Core Viewpoints - The company achieved a net profit of 1.555 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 33% year-on-year, with revenue of 45.042 billion yuan, down 6% year-on-year [1][7] - The company's lead-acid battery business revenue was 41.835 billion yuan in 2024, also down 6% year-on-year, with sales volume of 113.6 GWh, a decline of 9% year-on-year [1][16] - The fluctuation in lead prices significantly impacted the company's profitability, with a gross margin of 16.15% for lead-acid batteries, down 1.34 percentage points year-on-year [1][16] - Domestic policies are expected to stimulate demand for lead-acid batteries in 2025, with new standards for electric bicycles and increased subsidies for trade-in programs [2][17] - The company is expanding its overseas operations, with a new factory in Vietnam expected to enhance service capabilities and drive growth in international markets [2][17] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 45.042 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.555 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 15.10% [1][7] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 12.154 billion yuan, down 4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 90 million yuan, down 85% year-on-year [1][7] - The company’s financial metrics indicate a decline in profitability, with a net profit margin of 3.53% for 2024 [1][7] Business Segments - The lead-acid battery segment faced challenges due to late policy implementation and suppressed downstream demand, leading to a slight decline in shipments [1][16] - The lithium battery business experienced a significant revenue drop of 45% year-on-year, with a gross margin of -30.71% [2][23] - The company is actively pursuing innovation in energy storage and has developed new products for various applications, including home storage and communication [2][23] Future Outlook - The company expects steady growth in the lead-acid battery business in 2025, driven by favorable domestic policies and increased market demand [2][17] - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is adjusted to 2.362 billion yuan, 2.859 billion yuan, and 3.175 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a recovery trend [3][24]