贵州茅台（600519）：24年圆满收官，25年目标稳健

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 174.14 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.66%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 86.23 billion yuan, up 15.38% year-on-year [7] - The company aims for a revenue growth of approximately 9% in 2025 and plans to complete fixed asset investments of 4.71 billion yuan [7] - The report slightly adjusts the profit forecast for 2025-2026 and introduces a forecast for 2027, predicting net profits of 93.97 billion yuan, 99.15 billion yuan, and 104.71 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 9%, 5.5%, and 5.6% respectively [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 189.92 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.1% [6] - Net profit forecast for 2025 is 93.97 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9% [6] - Earnings per share for 2025 is projected to be 74.80 yuan [6] - The company maintains a high gross margin of 91.8% for 2025 [6] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 36.0% in 2025 [6] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the company's liquor revenue reached 170.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.89%, primarily due to increased sales volume and price adjustments [7] - The revenue from the main product, Moutai liquor, was 145.93 billion yuan, up 15.28% year-on-year, with sales volume of 46,400 tons, an increase of 10.22% [7] - The direct sales channel generated revenue of 74.84 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.32% [7] Profitability Metrics - The net profit margin for 2024 was 51.3%, an increase of 0.11 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The gross margin for liquor was 92%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The company's management expenses decreased, contributing to improved profitability [7] Cash Flow Analysis - Operating cash flow for 2024 was 92.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.85% [7] - The cash flow from sales of goods and services was 182.65 billion yuan, up 11.57% year-on-year [7] Market Catalysts - Economic recovery is expected to drive demand for high-end liquor [7]