KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) SINOLINK SECURITIES·2025-04-03 02:14Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][13]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 174.14 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.7%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 86.23 billion RMB, also up by 15.4% [2]. - For Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 51.02 billion RMB, reflecting a 12.8% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 25.40 billion RMB, which is a 16.2% increase compared to the same quarter last year [2]. - The company aims for a revenue growth target of approximately 9% for 2025, aligning with market expectations, and plans to distribute a total dividend of 75% [4]. Revenue Analysis - In terms of product segments, the revenue from Moutai liquor and series liquor for 2024 was 145.9 billion RMB and 24.7 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.3% and 19.7% [2]. - The sales volume for Moutai liquor and series liquor reached 46,000 tons and 37,000 tons, marking increases of 10.2% and 18.5% year-on-year [2]. - The average price per ton for Moutai liquor increased by 4.6%, while series liquor saw a 1.0% rise [2]. Channel Performance - Revenue from direct sales and wholesale agents for 2024 was 74.8 billion RMB and 95.8 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth of 11.3% and 19.7%, respectively [3]. - The i Moutai channel reported a revenue decline of 10.5% for 2024, with Q4 showing a significant drop of 29.9% [3]. - Excluding the i Moutai channel, direct sales revenue in Q4 2024 increased by 30% year-on-year [3]. Profitability Metrics - The net profit margin for 2024 slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 49.5%, while the gross margin remained stable [3]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 75.14 RMB, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20.6 [5][10]. Future Projections - Revenue growth rates are expected to be 9.1%, 8.2%, and 8.0% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profit growth rates of 9.5%, 8.6%, and 8.1% [5][10]. - The company plans to repurchase shares worth 3 to 6 billion RMB, having already repurchased 1.6 billion RMB [4].