Lier Chemical (SZ:002258) Bank of China Securities·2025-04-03 02:20Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company experienced short-term pressure on earnings, with a 2024 total revenue of RMB 7.31 billion, a decrease of 6.87% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 215 million, down 64.34% year-on-year. However, the fourth quarter showed a revenue increase of 15.10% year-on-year to RMB 2.12 billion and a net profit increase of 89.94% year-on-year to RMB 83 million [3][8]. - The company is expected to maintain its leading position in the industry of glyphosate and precision glyphosate, supported by scale effects and technological advantages, which will bolster future growth [3][5]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 7.31 billion, with a growth rate of -6.9%. The EBITDA is expected to be RMB 1.13 billion, and the net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be RMB 215 million, reflecting a significant decline of 64.3% [7][11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at RMB 0.42, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 21.2 times, 15.3 times, and 11.1 times for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][11]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of RMB 2 per 10 shares for 2024, resulting in a payout ratio of 74.34% [3][8]. Industry Context - The agricultural chemical industry is expected to remain under pressure in 2024, with glyphosate prices continuing to decline. The average price of glyphosate in 2024 is projected to be RMB 54,278 per ton, down 33.26% from 2023 [8]. - The domestic effective production capacity of glyphosate increased by 33.63% year-on-year to 151,000 tons in 2024, with an average operating rate of 62.86%, a slight decrease from the previous year [8].