KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) CMS·2025-04-03 02:36Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 1870 CNY, while the current stock price is 1549.02 CNY [3]. Core Insights - The company is expected to experience a reasonable revenue growth slowdown to around 9% in 2025, following two years of sales growth exceeding 10%. This is attributed to external environmental pressures faced in 2023 and 2024. The easing of volume pressure is anticipated to stabilize the wholesale price [1][6]. - The focus for the company will shift towards enhancing channel service capabilities and quality, as well as cultivating consumer groups. Historically, industry adjustment periods have provided opportunities for strong companies to further exploit their potential and expand their advantages [1][6]. - The current valuation stands at 21x PE, with a dividend yield maintained above 3.5%, indicating a safety margin for investors [1][6]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 1741.4 billion CNY and a net profit of 862.3 billion CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth of 15.7% and 15.4%, respectively [6][7]. - The sales revenue from Moutai liquor and series liquor in 2024 was 1459 billion CNY and 247 billion CNY, showing growth of 15.3% and 19.7%, respectively. Moutai liquor sales volume increased by 10.2% to 46,413 tons [6][7]. - The company’s operating cash flow increased by 38.9% year-on-year to 924.6 billion CNY in 2024, with a dividend payout ratio of 75% [6][7]. Financial Projections - The projected total revenue for the company is expected to reach 190.1 billion CNY in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9% [7][15]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 74.78 CNY in 2025, with a PE ratio of 20.7 [7][16]. - The company’s net profit margin is projected to remain stable around 49.4% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 37.9% [16].