龙湖集团（00960）：成长转型，周期突围

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [7][18]. Core Insights - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and profit in 2024, with total revenue of 127.5 billion RMB, down 29.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 10.4 billion RMB, down 19.1% year-on-year [1][2]. - The operational and service segments provided crucial support, with service revenue increasing by 7.4% year-on-year, contributing to 21% of total revenue [2]. - The company’s debt levels have decreased, with interest-bearing liabilities at 176.3 billion RMB, down 8.5% year-on-year, and a net debt ratio of 51.7% [4]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - In 2024, the company reported a core profit of 6.97 billion RMB, a decrease of 38.6% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 16.0%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous year [2]. - The company’s contract sales fell to 101.1 billion RMB, a decline of 41.7% year-on-year, with a sales area of 7.12 million square meters, down 34.0% [3]. Operational Performance - The company’s operational business, excluding tax rental income, generated 13.52 billion RMB, up 4.5% year-on-year, with shopping center rental income increasing by 7% to 10.98 billion RMB [5]. - The occupancy rate of shopping centers improved to 97%, with a total of 89 centers operated by the end of 2024 [5]. Financial Forecast - The company’s projected net profit for 2025 is adjusted to 7.06 billion RMB, reflecting a continued impact from industry fluctuations [6]. - The report outlines a significant reduction in expected revenue for 2025 to 89.2 billion RMB, down from previous estimates [6].