NEW HOPE SERV-新希望服务：Third party expansion advances to higher-end level, maintain BUY-20250403

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for New Hope Services with a target price revised down by 4% to HK $2.67, reflecting lower earnings forecasts [1][8]. Core Insights - New Hope Services' FY24 revenue grew 17% YoY to RMB 1,480 million, exceeding CMBI estimates by 5%, driven by stable managed GFA growth and strong retail & catering services [1][8]. - Net profit increased by 5% YoY to RMB 230 million, aligning with the company's guidance, despite a decline in gross margin and a reduction in SG&A ratio [1][8]. - The company reported impressive third-party expansion, with new contract value reaching RMB 600 million, a 192% increase YoY, and expects FY25 third-party expansion to rise by 16% to RMB 700 million [1][8]. Financial Performance Summary - FY24 revenue: RMB 1,481 million, a 17.5% increase YoY [2]. - FY24 net profit: RMB 227 million, a 5% increase YoY [2]. - EPS for FY24: RMB 0.28, reflecting a 5.5% growth YoY [2]. - Average PM fee for new third-party projects rose by 51% to RMB 2.63, indicating a shift towards higher-end projects [1][8]. - The company expects a dividend yield of 9.6% in 2025E based on the current price [1][8]. Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for FY25E: RMB 1,644 million, with a YoY growth of 11% [2][10]. - Net profit projections for FY25E: RMB 250 million, with a YoY growth of 10.4% [2][10]. - The gross margin is expected to decline to 29.5% in FY25E from 30.4% in FY24A [10][11]. Shareholder Structure - Golden Rose Developments holds a 66.9% stake in New Hope Services, indicating a strong controlling interest [4]. Market Data - Current market capitalization: HK$ 1,619.9 million [3]. - The stock is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 6.0x for FY25E [3][11]. Share Performance - The stock has shown a 1.5% decline over the past month and a 0.5% increase over the past three months [5].