SCS(SH:601555) Soochow Securities·2025-04-03 04:39Group 1: Tariff Implementation - Trump announced a 10% baseline tariff on global trade, effective April 5, 2025, with additional tariffs on specific countries ranging from 10% to 49%[3] - China faces an additional 34% tariff, leading to a cumulative tariff rate of 64.66% on average[4] - The exemption for small imports (under $800) has been eliminated, increasing the tax burden on low-value goods[4] Group 2: Economic Impact - The new tariffs are expected to reduce China's GDP growth by approximately 1.5% due to the cumulative tariff impact[4] - China's exports to the U.S. are projected to decline by 31.5%, contributing to an overall export decrease of 4.6%[4] - The weighted average tariff rate on U.S. imports is estimated to rise by 16.7%, potentially reaching 26.4% when considering previous tariffs on China and other countries[4] Group 3: Global Trade Dynamics - The implementation of these tariffs challenges the Most-Favored-Nation (MFN) principle, potentially shifting the global trade system from multilateral to bilateral agreements[4] - Historical context suggests that significant tariff increases, like those from the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, led to a 29.7% reduction in global trade during the Great Depression[4] - The current tariff measures may lead to a 25.1% contraction in global trade, reflecting heightened sensitivity to tariff changes[4]