YADEA(HK:01585) Guoxin Securities·2025-04-03 06:45Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for Yadea Holdings (01585.HK) [6][29] Core Insights - Yadea Holdings is expected to face revenue and profit declines in 2024 due to national inspections and inventory reduction, with a projected revenue of 28.24 billion yuan, down 18.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.27 billion yuan, down 51.8% [1][8] - The company aims to recover in 2025 by enhancing new product development and expanding its store network, with expectations of improved sales and profits [3][29] - The company is actively expanding into the Southeast Asian market, which is anticipated to become a new growth curve, with production capacity in Vietnam and Indonesia expected to reach 3 million units annually [3][28] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Yadea's gross margin is projected to be 15.2%, a decrease of 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin is expected to be 4.5%, down 3.1 percentage points [2][17] - The company has maintained a high level of R&D investment, with R&D expense ratio increasing to 4.1% in 2024, up 0.6 percentage points from 2023 [2][19] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2025 is set at 37.27 billion yuan, representing a 32% increase, with net profit expected to rebound to 2.70 billion yuan, a 112.4% increase [4][29] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 0.87 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 16 for 2025, 14 for 2026, and 12 for 2027 [4][29] Market Strategy - Yadea held a global retail summit in December 2024 to outline its development plans for 2025, focusing on technology innovation, product manufacturing, brand marketing, and retail upgrades [3][21] - The company launched the "Modern" series of new vehicles in February 2025, targeting female consumers and addressing product gaps [3][22] Southeast Asia Expansion - Yadea's strategy includes significant investments in Southeast Asia, with a new factory in Indonesia expected to enhance production capabilities to 3 million units annually [3][28][31]