CHINA RES LAND(01109) 光大证券·2025-04-03 06:44Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 278.8 billion yuan for 2024, representing an 11.0% year-on-year growth, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 18.5% to 25.6 billion yuan [1][2] - The company's gross margin decreased by 3.6 percentage points to 21.6%, primarily due to a decline in the gross margin of the development business [2] - The core net profit attributable to shareholders was 25.4 billion yuan, down 8.5% year-on-year, with recurring business contributing 10.3 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.2% increase [2] Revenue and Profitability - The real estate development business generated revenue of 237.2 billion yuan, up 11.8% year-on-year, while recurring business revenue totaled 41.7 billion yuan, a 6.6% increase, accounting for 14.9% of total revenue [2] - The company expects the development gross margin to remain at a bottoming stage in 2025 [2] Sales Performance - The total sales amount for 2024 was 261.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.0%, with first-tier cities (including Hong Kong) contributing 38% of sales, an increase of 9 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company focused on core cities and projects, with new equity investments totaling 52.6 billion yuan, and 94% of investments concentrated in first and second-tier cities [3] Shopping Center Operations - The company opened 16 new shopping centers in 2024, with retail sales increasing by 19.2% to 195.3 billion yuan, and same-store sales growth of 4.6% [3] - Rental income grew by 8.4% to 19.3 billion yuan, maintaining a rental-to-sales ratio of 12.2% and an operating profit margin of 61%, the highest in five years [3] Financial Health - As of the end of 2024, the company had a debt-to-asset ratio of 55.6% and a net debt ratio of 31.9%, indicating a stable financial position [4] - The comprehensive financing cost decreased by 45 basis points to 3.11%, reflecting a strong credit advantage [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 26.25 billion yuan and 28.15 billion yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 28.93 billion yuan [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 6.5 for 2025, 6.0 for 2026, and 5.9 for 2027, indicating a solid valuation given the company's financial stability and core land reserves [4]