CTG DUTY-FREE(601888) 中银国际·2025-04-03 07:04Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a previous rating also being "Buy" [1][4][6]. Core Views - The company faced significant pressure in 2024, with revenue of RMB 56.474 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 16.38%, and a net profit of RMB 4.267 billion, down 36.44% year-on-year. The report anticipates growth from the recovery of port stores and the gradual establishment of city stores [4][9]. - The report highlights the company's increasing market share in the offshore channel, despite a decline in duty-free sales. The company is expected to benefit from the upcoming closure of Hainan Island and ongoing property developments in the region [9]. - The international flight recovery has led to substantial growth in port duty-free sales, with the company's domestic duty-free store sales nearly doubling [9]. - The company is actively expanding its city duty-free operations, which are expected to contribute positively to revenue growth [9]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected revenue for 2025 is RMB 60.533 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 7.2% compared to 2024. The net profit is expected to be RMB 4.716 billion, with a growth rate of 10.5% [8][11]. - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) estimates of RMB 2.28 for 2025, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 26.5, 22.3, and 19.0 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6][8]. - The EBITDA for 2025 is projected at RMB 8.154 billion, with a growth rate of 24.5% [11].