贵州茅台（600519）：适应需求变化，巩固发展根基

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guizhou Moutai is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 174.14 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 86.23 billion yuan, up 15.4% year-on-year [2] - The company aims for a revenue growth of approximately 9% in 2025, actively seeking to adapt to changing demand environments and pursuing three transformations for more effective consumer engagement [2] - Despite the industry being in an adjustment phase, Guizhou Moutai is expected to maintain stable development due to its strong product mix and market management strategies [2] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 was 150.56 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 18.0%, and is projected to reach 190.13 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 9.2% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 74.73 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 19.2%, expected to increase to 94.36 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 9.4% [3] - The gross margin for 2024 is reported at 91.9%, with a slight decrease projected to 91.8% in 2025 [3] Operational Insights - In 2024, the revenue from Moutai liquor was 145.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.3%, while series liquor revenue reached 24.68 billion yuan, up 19.7% [2] - The company’s direct sales revenue was 74.88 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.4% increase, with a slight decrease in direct sales proportion to 43.88% [2] - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 75% from 2024 to 2026, indicating a projected dividend yield close to 4% [2]