Yantang Dairy(002732) 华鑫证券·2025-04-03 08:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure due to the consumption environment, but new product launches are expected to drive growth [6][10] - The company reported total revenue and net profit of 1.732 billion and 103 million yuan for 2024, representing year-on-year declines of 11% and 43% respectively [6] - The company is focusing on expanding its product matrix with new offerings that align with regional culture and health trends [7] - The company is deepening its market presence in the Greater Bay Area and steadily expanding new distribution channels [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, total revenue and net profit were 1.732 billion and 103 million yuan, down 11% and 43% year-on-year respectively [6] - The fourth quarter saw total revenue and net profit of 429 million and 22 million yuan, with declines of 9% and 42% year-on-year [6] - The gross margin for 2024 was 25.31%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 5.95%, down 3.2 percentage points [6] Product Development - The company has significantly increased its efforts in new product development, launching differentiated products such as Chenpi yogurt and fresh milk pudding [7] - Revenue from liquid milk, flavored milk, and yogurt drinks in 2024 was 6.46 billion, 3.32 billion, and 7.37 billion yuan, with respective year-on-year declines of 14%, 14%, and 7% [7] Market Strategy - The company reported offline and online revenues of 1.426 billion and 306 million yuan in 2024, with declines of 13% and 3% respectively [8] - The company has increased its number of distributors to 648, primarily in the Pearl River Delta region, and is actively expanding into new channels [8] - Revenue from the Guangdong province was 1.292 billion yuan, down 12% year-on-year, while revenue from outside Guangdong was 38 million yuan, down 6% [8] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to see earnings per share (EPS) of 0.84, 0.97, and 1.10 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 19, 16, and 15 [10] - The report anticipates a recovery in performance in the second half of the year as consumer spending policies take effect [10]