KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Huaan Securities·2025-04-03 07:57Investment Rating - Investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [2] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 510.2 billion yuan in Q4 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 254.0 billion yuan, up 16.2% [7] - For the full year 2024, total revenue reached 1,741.4 billion yuan, an increase of 15.7%, with a net profit of 862.3 billion yuan, up 15.4% [7] - The company expects steady growth in 2025, with projected revenue growth of 9% [9] Revenue Summary - Q4 2024 revenue from Moutai liquor and series liquor grew by 13.9% and 5.1% respectively, with Moutai liquor accounting for 89.4% of total liquor revenue [7] - For the full year 2024, Moutai liquor and series liquor revenues increased by 15.3% and 19.7% respectively [7] - The company’s direct sales and wholesale revenue in Q4 2024 grew by 8.7% and 16.8% respectively [7] Profitability Summary - The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 92.9%, slightly up from the previous year, while the annual gross margin was 91.9% [7] - The net profit margin for Q4 2024 was 52.5%, reflecting a year-on-year increase [7] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve total revenues of 1,901.3 billion yuan, 2,050.4 billion yuan, and 2,183.1 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.2%, 7.8%, and 6.5% [9][11] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 939.4 billion yuan, 1,020.8 billion yuan, and 1,091.2 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 8.9%, 8.7%, and 6.9% [9][11]