贵州茅台：适应需求变化，巩固发展根基-20250403

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company achieved a total operating revenue of 174.14 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 86.23 billion yuan, up 15.4% year-on-year [1][3] - The company aims for a revenue growth of approximately 9% in 2025, actively seeking to adapt to changing demand environments and pursuing three transformations for more effective consumer engagement [3] - The company maintains a stable profitability with a gross margin of 91.93% for the year, despite a slight decrease of 0.03 percentage points year-on-year [3] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 174.14 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15.7% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 86.23 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.4% [4] - The gross margin for 2024 was 91.9%, with a slight decrease from the previous year [4] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 was 68.64 yuan, with projections of 75.12 yuan, 81.93 yuan, and 89.24 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][3] Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from Moutai liquor reached 145.93 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 15.3% year-on-year, with a volume increase of 10.2% and a price increase of 4.6% [3] - Series liquor revenue was 24.68 billion yuan, up 19.7% year-on-year, with a volume increase of 18.5% and a price increase of 1.0% [3] - The company’s direct sales revenue was 74.88 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.4% increase year-on-year, while the proportion of direct sales slightly decreased [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 75% from 2024 to 2026, indicating a projected dividend yield close to 4% [3] - The company is positioned to navigate through industry adjustments effectively, leveraging its strong product mix and market management strategies [3]