Zhonggu Logistics(603565) 华创证券·2025-04-03 08:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Zhonggu Logistics (603565) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.84 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.9%, with a dividend payout ratio reaching 90%, making the dividend attractive [1] - The report highlights the strong performance in the foreign trade charter market, with rental rates for 4400 and 2500 TEU container ships increasing by 221% and 156% year-on-year, respectively [2] - The domestic shipping market is also showing signs of improvement, with the PDCI index averaging 1287 points in Q4 2024, up 9% year-on-year [2] Financial Summary - For 2024, total revenue is projected at 11.258 billion, a decrease of 9.5% year-on-year, while net profit is expected to be 1.835 billion, reflecting a growth of 6.9% [4] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.79 per share, corresponding to a dividend yield of 7.3% [8] - The financial forecast indicates a gradual recovery in revenue, with estimates of 11.312 billion in 2025 and 11.951 billion in 2026, alongside net profits of 1.846 billion and 1.937 billion, respectively [4][8] Future Outlook - The foreign trade charter market is expected to remain robust, with rental rates for container ships projected to continue increasing [8] - The domestic container transportation market is anticipated to grow by 5% to 7% in 2025, with a static capacity growth of 4% [8] - The report raises the profit forecast for 2025 and 2026, with net profit estimates of 18.5 billion and 19.4 billion, respectively, and introduces a new estimate for 2027 at 20 billion [8]