贵州茅台（600519）：2024年报点评：平稳兑现，目标积极

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 174.1 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 86.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 15.4% [8] - The company has adjusted its sales policies and product offerings to ensure the smooth completion of its annual operating plan, with specific revenue contributions from different product lines and channels [8] - The company aims for a total revenue growth of 9% in 2025, with a focus on optimizing product and channel mix to drive revenue increments [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2023 was 150.56 billion yuan, with a projected increase to 174.14 billion yuan in 2024, and further growth expected to 190.05 billion yuan in 2025 [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 74.73 billion yuan in 2023, expected to rise to 86.23 billion yuan in 2024, and reach 93.20 billion yuan in 2025 [1] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 68.64 yuan for 2024, increasing to 74.19 yuan in 2025 [1] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from Moutai liquor in 2024 is expected to be 145.93 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 15.3%, while series liquor revenue is projected at 24.68 billion yuan, growing by 19.7% [8] - Direct sales revenue for 2024 is anticipated to be 74.84 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.3% increase [8] Profitability Metrics - The net profit margin for 2024 is projected at 52.3%, slightly down by 0.2 percentage points from the previous year [8] - The company has managed to reduce management expenses by 4.3% year-on-year, primarily due to a 15% decrease in salaries [8] Future Outlook - The company has updated its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 93.20 billion yuan and 100.94 billion yuan respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 110.28 billion yuan [8] - The current market valuation corresponds to a P/E ratio of 22.57 for 2024, decreasing to 20.88 for 2025, and further to 17.65 by 2027 [1]