KWEICHOW MOUTAI(600519) 国信证券·2025-04-03 10:05Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7][12]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of approximately 15% in 2024, with a target revenue growth of 9% for 2025 [1][5]. - The revenue for 2024 is projected to be 174.14 billion yuan, with a net profit of 86.23 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year increases of 15.66% and 15.38%, respectively [1][5]. - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 75% for 2024, consistent with its dividend return plan [1]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company expects revenue from Moutai liquor to reach 145.93 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 15.28%, and a sales volume of 46,000 tons, up 10.22% [2]. - The series liquor segment is anticipated to grow faster than Moutai liquor, with a revenue of 24.68 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 19.65% [2]. - The gross profit margin for Moutai liquor is projected to decline slightly due to increased labor costs, while the wholesale channel is expected to grow significantly [2][3]. Financial Forecasts - The company has adjusted its revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, with expected revenues of 190.75 billion yuan and 207.07 billion yuan, respectively, indicating year-on-year growth rates of 9.5% and 8.6% [5][11]. - The net profit for 2025 is forecasted to be 94.27 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.3% [5][11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise to 75.04 yuan in 2025, with a projected growth rate of 9.3% [5][11]. Market Strategy - The company aims to respect market dynamics in its product launch strategy, focusing on stabilizing prices and adjusting distribution channels for its products [4]. - The sales model for Moutai 1935 is undergoing reform, with expected growth concentrated in kilogram packaging and cultural IP products [4]. - Increased marketing expenses are planned to expand diversified channels and promote genuine consumer engagement [4].