AECC AP(600893) 天风证券·2025-04-03 10:14Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6][17]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 47.88 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders was 860 million yuan, down 39.5% year-on-year, primarily due to increased R&D and financial expenses, as well as reduced investment income [1][4]. - The company is expected to benefit from the long-term development of military and civil aviation businesses, despite short-term performance pressures [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company recorded its highest quarterly revenue of 21.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.8%, but the net profit dropped by 65.7% to 130 million yuan [2]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 10.1%, a decrease of 1.03 percentage points year-on-year, with a net margin of 2.1%, down 1.42 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The revenue from the main product line, aviation engines and related products, was 44.99 billion yuan, up 10.0% year-on-year, while the gross margin for this segment was 9.5%, down 0.48 percentage points [3]. Business Development Insights - The company is deeply involved in the development of domestic commercial engines and is a key supplier of core components, which positions it to benefit from the growth of the domestic large aircraft industry [3]. - The company has signed a significant procurement contract for 1,500 general aviation power products, valued at over 10 billion yuan, indicating strong market demand [3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 47.69 billion yuan, 53.32 billion yuan, and 58.97 billion yuan respectively, with net profit forecasts of 690 million yuan, 888 million yuan, and 1.17 billion yuan [4][5]. - The projected price-to-earnings ratios for 2025-2027 are 126.21x, 98.12x, and 74.46x respectively, reflecting the company's valuation outlook [4][5].