KWEICHOW MOUTAI(600519) 平安证券·2025-04-03 10:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" [1][3][10] Core Views - The company achieved a total operating revenue of 174.1 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 86.2 billion yuan, up 15.4% year-on-year, slightly exceeding the forecast [3][6] - The company aims for a stable growth target in 2025, with an expected revenue growth of around 9% [6][10] - The company is focusing on optimizing online marketing and expanding overseas markets, with domestic and overseas revenues expected to reach 165.7 billion yuan and 5.2 billion yuan respectively in 2024, reflecting year-on-year growth of 16% and 20% [6][10] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company's white liquor revenue reached 170.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.9%, with Moutai liquor and series liquor contributing 145.9 billion yuan and 24.7 billion yuan respectively [6][10] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 91.9%, with a net profit margin of 49.5% [8][10] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 276.24 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 64.7 billion yuan, which accounts for 75% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [10] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The projected operating revenues for the next few years are as follows: - 2025: 187.6 billion yuan (growth of 9.8%) - 2026: 203.4 billion yuan (growth of 8.4%) - 2027: 218.9 billion yuan (growth of 7.6%) [5][11] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach: - 2025: 94.8 billion yuan - 2026: 103.4 billion yuan - 2027: 111.6 billion yuan [5][11] Valuation Metrics - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 22.6 in 2024 to 17.4 in 2027, indicating an improving valuation over time [5][11] - The P/B ratio is expected to decline from 8.3 in 2024 to 6.3 in 2027 [5][11]