HENDERSON LAND(00012) 交银国际·2025-04-03 12:18Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral, with a target price adjusted to HKD 23.02, indicating a potential upside of 1.6% from the current price of HKD 22.65 [7][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights stable rental income and dividends, but notes uncertainty in property development cycles. The company is expected to experience a decline in revenue in 2024, with a projected decrease of 8.4% to HKD 25.26 billion, primarily due to reduced property deliveries [2][8]. - Despite the challenges, core net profit is expected to remain stable, with a slight increase of 0.7% year-on-year to HKD 9.77 billion in 2024, supported by gains from property sales and government land compensation [8][9]. - The report anticipates stable rental income growth from 2025 to 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 13%, driven by new projects and improved occupancy rates in prime office spaces [8][9]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: HKD 27.57 billion in 2023, HKD 25.26 billion in 2024, and expected growth to HKD 29.02 billion in 2025 [5][13]. - Core earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be HKD 2.00 in 2023, slightly increasing to HKD 2.02 in 2024, but expected to decline to HKD 1.90 in 2025 [5][13]. - The company maintains a stable dividend policy, with an annual dividend of HKD 1.80 per share, resulting in a dividend yield of 7.9% [5][8]. Market Performance - The company's stock has seen a year-to-date decline of 4.03%, with a 52-week high of HKD 27.25 and a low of HKD 20.55 [4][9]. - The market capitalization is approximately HKD 109.66 billion, with an average daily trading volume of 2.84 million shares [4][9]. Future Outlook - The report indicates that the company has HKD 11.53 billion in unsold sales, with about HKD 10.53 billion expected to be recognized in 2025 [8]. - Future rental growth is anticipated from several key projects, including the completion of a major waterfront project in Central and developments in Shenzhen and Shanghai [8][9].