Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-04-03 12:21Report Date - The report date is April 3, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Recent urea spot transactions are active, and the spot price has been rising. The small-grain prices in Shandong and Henan are around 1900. As the price rises, the trading volume weakens. The strong expectation has been gradually reflected in the valuation, and it is necessary to observe whether the grass-roots demand around the Tomb-Sweeping Festival can exceed expectations. The urea price will continue to fluctuate. This week, the domestic daily urea production is expected to be around 190,000 tons, running at a high level. In terms of demand, the rice planting in the south is advancing, and agricultural demand is following up. In the industrial sector, compound fertilizer plants are in the high-nitrogen fertilizer production stage, and their purchases are relatively good, but the high-price raw materials have increased the fear of high prices among compound fertilizer plants, and they are becoming more cautious in replenishing stocks. Overall, the urea price will continue to fluctuate, and the expected price range will be maintained. During the agricultural demand season, the market is highly speculative, and the fundamentals are in a gradually balanced supply-demand pattern [4][5] Price Range Forecast - Urea price range is predicted to be 1800 - 2000, with a current 20-day rolling volatility of 19.65% and a 3-year historical percentile of 20.1% - Methanol price range is predicted to be 2400 - 2600, with a current 20-day rolling volatility of 18.49% and a 3-year historical percentile of 42.6% - Polypropylene price range is predicted to be 7200 - 7500, with a current 20-day rolling volatility of 6.49% and a 3-year historical percentile of 6.3% - Plastic price range is predicted to be 7500 - 7800, with a current 20-day rolling volatility of 6.93% and a 3-year historical percentile of 1.4% [3] Urea Hedging Strategy Inventory Management - For high finished product inventory and fear of price decline, sell 25% of UR2505 and UR2505P1 at 1850 - 1950 to lock in profits and cover production costs; buy 50% of put options and sell 50% of UR2505P1850 to prevent price drops and reduce costs; sell 45 - 60% of UR2505C1950 - For high finished product inventory and fear of price rise, buy 50% of UR2505 at 1750 - 1850 to lock in procurement costs [3] Procurement Management - For low procurement inventory and procurement based on orders, sell 75% of UR2505P1750 at 20 - 25 to collect premiums, reduce procurement costs, and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [3] Core Contradictions - Spot transactions are active and prices are rising, but trading volume weakens as prices go up. The strong expectation is reflected in the valuation, and the follow-up demand around the Tomb-Sweeping Festival needs to be observed. Daily production is high, agricultural demand is following up, and industrial demand is cautious. The price will continue to fluctuate [4] 利多解读 - Agricultural demand continues to maintain extremely high demand [5] 利空解读 - Agricultural demand will weaken before and after the Tomb-Sweeping Festival [6]