KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Minsheng Securities·2025-04-05 12:25Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 1,741.44 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 862.28 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.66% and 15.38% respectively, slightly exceeding previous operational announcements [1]. - The revenue growth target for 2025 is set at 9%, which is considered realistic given the current market pressures [3]. - The company has a strong brand moat and robust channel risk resistance, with a high certainty of achieving the 9% revenue growth target for 2025 [6]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company's main liquor business generated revenue of 1,706.12 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 92.01%, showing a year-on-year increase in volume of 13.73% and price increase of 1.9% [1][5]. - The company plans to distribute a total cash dividend of 647 billion yuan for 2024, corresponding to a dividend payout ratio of 75% [3]. - The company’s revenue from Moutai liquor reached 1,459 billion yuan in 2024, with a volume increase of 10.22% and price increase of 4.59% [5]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 1,908.81 billion yuan, 2,070.44 billion yuan, and 2,239.13 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 9.6%, 8.5%, and 8.1% [6][7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 948 billion yuan, 1,030 billion yuan, and 1,116 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 9.9%, 8.7%, and 8.4% respectively [7][8].