华鲁恒升：四季度业绩环比改善，看好周期底部业绩弹性-20250405

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 34.226 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 25.55%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.903 billion yuan, up 9.14% year-on-year [4] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 9.046 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.31% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.26%, with a net profit of 0.854 billion yuan, up 31.61% year-on-year and 3.52% quarter-on-quarter [5] - The company's performance in Q4 2024 improved due to increased production and sales of core products, despite a decline in gross margin [6] - The company has launched new production capacities in the adipic acid and melamine resin sectors, which are expected to drive future performance [7] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 4.358 billion, 4.893 billion, and 5.377 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11, 10, and 9 [10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 18.71%, down 2.14 percentage points year-on-year, with major products experiencing price declines [6] - The average prices for key products in 2024 showed a decline, with DMF, acetic acid, and urea prices decreasing by 14.4%, 11.7%, and 14.3% respectively [6] - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 46.658 billion yuan in 2024 to 65.822 billion yuan in 2027 [14] Production Capacity and Market Position - The company has a total production capacity of 526,600 tons for adipic acid, with ongoing projects expected to enhance its competitive position in the chemical new materials and fertilizer sectors [9] - The company maintains a leading market share in DMF production, with a domestic market share of 30% [9] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from new production capacities and a strong cost control advantage, with product prices currently at a low point [10] - The projected revenue growth for the next few years is expected to be 4.6% in 2025, 8.2% in 2026, and 2.3% in 2027 [11]