贵州茅台（600519）：2024年年报点评：平稳收官彰显韧性，25年目标营收增速9%

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 174.14 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 86.23 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.66% and 15.38% respectively, slightly exceeding previous operational announcements [1] - The revenue growth is driven by both volume and price increases, with a notable 13.73% increase in volume and a 1.9% increase in price for the main liquor segment [1][5] - The company has set a realistic revenue growth target of 9% for 2025, balancing short-term growth with long-term development [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a stable gross margin of 92.01%, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.1 percentage points [2] - The total cash dividend for 2024 is planned at 64.7 billion yuan, corresponding to a dividend payout ratio of 75% [3] - The company expects to achieve revenues of 190.88 billion yuan, 207.04 billion yuan, and 223.91 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 94.76 billion yuan, 103.01 billion yuan, and 111.64 billion yuan [6][7] Product and Channel Analysis - The main liquor segment generated 145.9 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, with a volume increase of 10.22% and a price increase of 4.59% [5] - The wholesale and agency channel revenue increased by 19.73% year-on-year, accounting for 56% of total revenue, up by 1.8 percentage points [5] - Domestic revenue reached 165.42 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.79%, while international revenue surpassed 5.19 billion yuan, growing by 19.27% [5] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a strong brand moat and robust channel risk resistance, with a high certainty of achieving the 9% revenue growth target for 2025 [6] - The projected earnings per share for 2025 is 75.43 yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 21 [7][8]