Tsingtao Brewery(600600) 华鑫证券·2025-04-06 02:05Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for Qingdao Beer [1][8] Core Views - The company's revenue slightly declined year-on-year due to environmental impacts, with total revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 at 32.138 billion and 4.345 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year change of -5% and +2% [2] - The company has shown significant cost optimization effects, leading to a slight increase in gross margin, with gross margin and net margin for 2024 at 40% and 14%, respectively, both up by 1.6 and 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company is focusing on product structure optimization and channel diversification, with a continued push for high-end and ultra-high-end products, and a notable increase in online sales [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, total revenue was 3.179 billion yuan, up 7% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was -645 million yuan, showing a slight increase in losses [2] - Operating net cash flow for 2024 was 5.155 billion yuan, a significant increase of 86% year-on-year, with sales receipts at 38.057 billion yuan, up 0.5% [2] - The company’s contract liabilities at the end of 2024 were 8.313 billion yuan, an increase of 2.868 billion yuan quarter-on-quarter [2] Product and Market Strategy - Overall beer sales volume and price per ton in 2024 decreased by 5.9% and increased by 0.4%, respectively, with the main brand's sales volume down by 4.8% [3] - The company is advancing its "1+1+1+2+N" product mix strategy, with mid-to-high-end product sales at 3.15 million kiloliters, a decrease of 2.7% year-on-year, but accounting for 73% of the main brand's sales [3] - The company has launched new products to meet diverse consumer needs, including the "A series of Aogute, Nikashi White Beer, and non-alcoholic beer series" [3] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to have EPS of 3.55, 3.84, and 4.11 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 22, 20, and 19 times [8] - Revenue growth rates are projected at -5.3% for 2024, followed by 4.3%, 3.2%, and 2.9% for the subsequent years [10]