Cinda Securities(SH:601059) Xinda Securities·2025-04-06 03:32Macro Perspective - The expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve has increased, with a 94.4% probability of a cut in June 2025 and 90% in July 2025, leading to a downward trend in U.S. Treasury yields[4] - Domestic M2 growth year-on-year is stable at 7.0%, with the M1-M2 differential at -6.9%, indicating a potential bearish outlook for excess returns in dividend stocks[4] Valuation Metrics - The absolute PETTM for the CSI Dividend Index is at the 99.20th percentile over the past three years, up from 93.32% a month ago, suggesting a high valuation level[4] - The relative PETTM is at the 80.64th percentile, indicating a moderately high relative valuation compared to the broader market[4] Price and Volume Analysis - 59.60% of the CSI Dividend Index component stocks are above their six-month moving average, an increase from 55.04% a month ago, indicating a potential for future absolute returns of 7.12%[4] - The absolute trading volume is at the 73.70th percentile over the past three years, showing a recovery in trading activity, with an estimated future absolute return of 6.07%[4] Fund Flows - The exposure of equity mutual funds to dividend strategies has increased, with the latest exposure at 0.45, the highest since 2019[4] - Dividend ETFs saw a net inflow of 3.18 billion yuan this week, although the total net inflow over the past month is -3.96 billion yuan[4] Summary and Outlook - The macro model suggests that dividend strategies may underperform growth strategies in the near term, but potential improvements in monetary and fiscal policies could enhance M2 and M1-M2 differential metrics[4] - The high absolute and relative PE ratios indicate caution, while the recent increase in trading volume and fund flows suggests a potential for short-term rebounds in dividend stocks[4]