Flat(601865) 华创证券·2025-04-06 03:35Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [1][21]. Core Insights - The company's performance is under pressure, with a revenue decline of 13.2% year-on-year to CNY 18.683 billion in 2024, and a significant drop in net profit by 63.52% to CNY 1.007 billion [1][4]. - The gross margin decreased to 15.50%, down 6.31 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin fell to 5.39%, down 7.43 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of CNY 4.079 billion, a year-on-year decline of 27.67%, and a net loss of CNY 289 million [1]. Financial Performance Summary - The company achieved total revenue of CNY 186.83 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year decrease of 13.2% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was CNY 10.07 billion, reflecting a 63.52% decline compared to the previous year [4]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 15.50%, down from the previous year, while the net profit margin was 5.39%, also showing a decline [1][4]. - The company expects a recovery in profitability driven by a rebound in solar glass prices, with inventory levels decreasing significantly [8]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are CNY 19.116 billion, CNY 23.330 billion, and CNY 27.249 billion, respectively, indicating a recovery trend [4]. - The net profit forecasts for the same years are CNY 1.139 billion, CNY 1.980 billion, and CNY 2.685 billion, showing a significant rebound in profitability [4]. - The report anticipates a price recovery in solar glass, which is expected to improve the company's profitability in the coming years [8]. Market Position and Strategy - The company maintains a leading position in the photovoltaic glass industry, with a nominal capacity of 23,000 tons per day and an operational capacity of 19,400 tons per day as of the end of 2024 [8]. - The company is expanding its overseas presence, with profitable operations in Vietnam and ongoing projects in Indonesia to mitigate trade barrier risks [8]. - The report highlights the company's cost advantages and solid market position as key factors for future growth [8].