AVIC AVIONICS(600372) Tianfeng Securities·2025-04-06 05:46Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [7][19]. Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is reported at 23.9 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 17.7%, with a net profit of 1.04 billion yuan, down 44.8% year-over-year [1]. - The decline in performance is attributed to market conditions, industry cycles, and policy factors, with key customer demand for defense equipment not meeting expectations [1]. - Despite a significant increase in revenue from civil aviation and automotive products, it was insufficient to offset the decline in defense equipment sales [1]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of 7.31 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 11.6%, and a net loss of 160 million yuan compared to a profit of 240 million yuan in the same period last year [2]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 decreased by 1.56 percentage points to 28.2%, while the net margin fell by 2.41 percentage points to 5.0% [2]. - Domestic revenue was 22.98 billion yuan, down 18.8% year-over-year, while international revenue increased by 28.7% to 900 million yuan [2]. Cost Management and Cash Flow - The company improved its expense control, with a total expense ratio of 21.6%, a slight decrease of 0.19 percentage points [3]. - Accounts receivable increased by 4.9% to 27.82 billion yuan, and inventory rose by 12.6% to 15.65 billion yuan [3]. - The net cash flow from operating activities was negative 1.99 billion yuan, primarily due to delayed receivables [3]. Strategic Focus and Opportunities - The company is focusing on enhancing its core business in equipment manufacturing and is actively pursuing opportunities in civil aviation and low-altitude economy sectors [4]. - It is involved in major national aircraft projects, including C919 and AG600, and is developing a comprehensive low-altitude product line [4]. - Collaborations with leading eVTOL companies are underway to provide compliant airborne systems and components [4]. Earnings Forecast - The revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 24.31 billion yuan, 27.35 billion yuan, and 31.04 billion yuan, respectively [5]. - The forecasted net profit for the same period is adjusted to 1.16 billion yuan, 1.36 billion yuan, and 1.58 billion yuan, respectively [5]. - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected at 46.34, 39.53, and 33.90 times [5].