招商公路（001965）：投资收益受23年基数扰动，业绩略低于预期

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][6][7] Core Insights - The company's 2024 performance showed total revenue of 12.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.62%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.32 billion yuan, a decline of 21.35% [6][7] - The decline in net profit is attributed to several factors, including a high base from the previous year, adverse weather conditions, and macroeconomic influences [6][7] - The company continues to maintain a high dividend policy, distributing 4.17 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 2.844 billion yuan in cash dividends [6][7] - The company is advancing in smart transportation and expanding its traffic ecosystem, with traffic technology revenue reaching 2.169 billion yuan and a gross margin of 10.72% [6][7] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downwards, with expected net profits of 6.645 billion, 6.758 billion, and 7.255 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a growth of 24.8%, 1.7%, and 7.4% [6][7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: 9.731 billion (2023), 12.711 billion (2024), 14.841 billion (2025E), 14.276 billion (2026E), and 15.157 billion (2027E) [5][7] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 6.767 billion (2023), 5.322 billion (2024), 6.645 billion (2025E), 6.758 billion (2026E), and 7.255 billion (2027E) [5][7] - The company's gross margin is expected to be around 35.9% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 9.3% [5][7]