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福莱特玻璃(06865):2024Q4单平盈利触底,2025Q2迎来量利修复

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 18.683 billion CNY in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 13.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.007 billion CNY, down 63.52% year-on-year. In Q4 2024, revenue was 4.079 billion CNY, a decline of 27.67% year-on-year but an increase of 4.37% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit for Q4 was -289 million CNY, a decrease of 136.54% year-on-year [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's photovoltaic glass revenue was 16.8 billion CNY, down 14.5% year-on-year, with an estimated sales volume of approximately 1.26 billion square meters, an increase of 3.7% year-on-year. The gross margin for photovoltaic glass was 15.6%, a decrease of 6.8 percentage points year-on-year. North America accounted for 1.1 billion CNY in revenue, a significant increase of 231.6% year-on-year, driven by high demand for photovoltaics in the U.S. and the gradual release of local component capacity [4][7]. Market Outlook - The company expects that Q4 2024 will see a bottoming out of single flat profit margins, with a projected increase in sales volume despite a decline in average selling prices. Cost optimization is expected to mitigate some of the impacts of price reductions, and the company maintains a significant profit advantage over second- and third-tier competitors. The recent trends in photovoltaic glass prices suggest that profitability levels have reached a low point [4][7]. Operational Efficiency - The company reported a significant reduction in sales expenses by 56.6% in 2024, attributed to improved efficiency in the use of scaffolding. Financial expenses also decreased by 15.6%, mainly due to reduced bank interest expenses and increased foreign exchange gains. The company experienced asset impairment losses of 356 million CNY in 2024, with inventory write-down losses of 79 million CNY and fixed asset impairment losses of 277 million CNY, primarily due to kiln maintenance [4][7]. Industry Dynamics - The supply-demand dynamics in the industry are improving, with a clear trend of volume and price recovery expected in Q2 2025. As of the end of March, industry inventory days decreased to 27.44 days, leading to price increases in photovoltaic glass in March and further expected improvements in April. The company, as a leading player in the photovoltaic glass market, is well-positioned to benefit from these trends, with ongoing projects in Anhui and Nantong and orderly progress in overseas capacities in Vietnam and Indonesia [4][7].