Zhonggu Logistics(603565) 长江证券·2025-04-06 09:13Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company is expected to generate revenue of 11.26 billion in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 1.84 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.9% [2][5]. - The company has shifted its focus from domestic trade to a combination of domestic and foreign trade, enhancing its resilience through capacity leasing and demonstrating shareholder returns through high dividends [10]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - For 2024, the company anticipates a revenue of 11.26 billion, down 9.5% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.84 billion, up 6.9% year-on-year, and a non-recurring net profit of 1.1 billion, up 6.2% year-on-year [2][5]. Business Performance - Domestic trade revenue is expected to decline significantly due to seasonal characteristics and decreased freight rates, with a projected revenue of 9.5 billion, down 15.2% year-on-year. The domestic freight rate index (PDCI) averaged 1103, down 12.3% year-on-year [10]. - The foreign trade sector is experiencing high demand, leading to increased charter rates, with the average charter rate for 4,400 TEU vessels rising by 90.2% year-on-year [10]. Cost Management and Efficiency - The company has managed to reduce operating costs by 10.4% year-on-year, primarily due to decreased fuel costs and an increase in the proportion of owned vessels from 69.8% in 2023 to 72.7% in 2024 [10]. - The company has also achieved a significant reduction in period expenses, down 49.2% year-on-year, through cost-cutting measures and increased dollar-denominated income from leasing operations [10]. Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to see a rebound in domestic trade in 2025, with improved supply-demand dynamics. The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 1.93 billion, 2.02 billion, and 2.15 billion, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 11.7, 11.1, and 10.5 [10]. - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, with a projected dividend payout ratio of 60%, leading to dividend yields of 5.1%, 5.4%, and 5.7% for 2025-2027 [10].