不是大萧条重演，而是贸易格局重塑

Investment Focus - The report highlights that China's retaliatory speed and attitude have exceeded expectations, leading to a significant decline in market risk appetite and a simultaneous sell-off of equities and commodities [1][8] - China's tough stance is aimed at promoting a restructuring of trade patterns, as it is the only major power capable of countering the United States, rapidly asserting its position to unite various forces and re-establish new trade alliances [1][8] Economic Context - Unlike the Great Depression triggered by the U.S. Hoover administration's tariff increases in 1930, other countries are not retaliating further but are seeking negotiations with the U.S. by offering concessions and exploring regional trade alliances to ensure partial supply chain operations [2][9] - The current U.S. economy is not transitioning from prosperity to decline, as there is no deepening contradiction between overcapacity and declining consumption levels, and the economy has a new engine in AI [2][9] - The U.S. has shifted from being the world's factory to a major consumer nation, with more alternatives in the global supply chain and increasing consumption demand from other countries, such as ASEAN [2][9] Impact on China - China's exports and stock market are less vulnerable than in 2018, with previous tariff increases in 2019 having a smaller impact on the Shanghai Composite Index compared to the current situation [3][10] - The report anticipates that China will introduce more easing policies and domestic demand stimulus to stabilize its fundamentals, with ongoing U.S.-China negotiations still possible [3][10] Stock Market Outlook - In the short term (1-2 months), systemic risks in the Chinese stock market are limited, with expectations of favorable domestic policies and signs of improvement in first-quarter earnings, which could lead to a market rebound [4][11] - In the medium term (3-6 months), internal contradictions within the U.S. may deepen, leading to pressure on the overall stock market, including the Chinese stock market, which may face wide fluctuations [4][11] - In the long term (beyond 6 months), after the market shakeout from the crisis, the focus will shift to economic growth, with expectations that China's technological breakthroughs and domestic demand boosting will drive a significant bull market in Chinese stocks [4][11]