CBC(600132) 浙商证券·2025-04-06 12:13Investment Rating - The investment rating for Chongqing Beer is maintained as "Buy" [8] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 met expectations, with revenue of 14.645 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.15%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.115 billion yuan, down 16.61% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 1.582 billion yuan, a decline of 11.45% year-on-year, and a net loss of 217 million yuan, compared to a loss of 7 million yuan in the same period last year. The lower net profit was primarily due to a provision for expected liabilities of 254 million yuan related to litigation [1] Summary by Sections Revenue and Sales Performance - In 2024, the total sales volume was 2.9749 million tons, a decrease of 0.75% year-on-year, with an average price of 4,923 yuan per ton, down 0.40% year-on-year. The fourth quarter sales volume was 317,900 tons, a decline of 8.07% year-on-year, with an average price of 4,975 yuan per ton, down 3.68% year-on-year. The high-end beer sales ratio increased, with premium revenue down 2.97% (volume up 1.37%, price down 4.3%), mainstream revenue down 1.02% (volume down 3.81%, price up 2.9%), and economy revenue up 15.56% (volume up 13.49%, price up 1.8%) [2] Regional Performance - The South region performed relatively well, while the Northwest and Central regions faced challenges. In 2024, the Northwest, Central, and South regions generated revenues of 3.884 billion, 5.969 billion, and 4.316 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -3.46%, -1.88%, and -0.42%. In Q4 2024, revenues were 211 million, 620 million, and 631 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -17.47%, -15.57%, and -8.59%. The South region's revenue share increased by 0.45 percentage points to 30.46%, mainly driven by tourism recovery in regions like Yunnan and Guangxi [3] Profitability and Costs - The company's gross margin and net profit margin in 2024 decreased by 0.58 and 2.94 percentage points to 48.57% and 15.36%, respectively. In Q4 2024, the gross margin and net profit margin decreased by 5.42 and 26.53 percentage points to 43.38% and -26.38%, respectively. The cost per ton based on operating costs was 2,532 yuan, up 0.72% year-on-year, while the cost per ton for beer business was 2,396 yuan, down 1.06% year-on-year [4][5] Future Outlook - For Q1 2025, a slight growth is expected, with beer consumption showing signs of recovery. The company anticipates a modest increase in revenue and profit for the first quarter. For the full year 2025, growth in sales is expected to be driven by the recovery of dining scenarios, with stable expense ratios. The cost per ton will need to be monitored based on sales performance, with potential increases in depreciation and amortization costs from the Foshan factory, although improvements in raw material procurement costs and transportation costs may offset some of these increases [6] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The revenue growth rates for 2025-2027 are projected at 2.0%, 2.6%, and 2.6%, while the net profit growth rates are expected to be 14.4%, 4.4%, and 4.3%. The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 2.6, 2.8, and 2.9 yuan per share, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 22.7, 21.7, and 20.8 times, respectively. The current valuation is considered cost-effective, supporting the "Buy" rating [7]