SANY(600031) 浙商证券·2025-04-06 13:46Investment Rating - The investment rating for SANY Heavy Industry is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company has launched an employee stock ownership plan, reflecting confidence in its future [1] - The construction machinery industry is showing signs of recovery, with leading companies expected to benefit [2][3] - SANY's excavator revenue accounts for a significant portion of its income, providing substantial earnings elasticity during industry upturns [4] - The company plans to repurchase shares and issue Hong Kong stocks, indicating a commitment to global expansion [5] - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2024-2026 show strong growth, with a compound annual growth rate of 34% for net profit [6] Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for SANY Heavy Industry, indicating a positive outlook for the stock [6] Company Developments - On April 3, 2025, SANY announced a 2025 employee stock ownership plan with a scale not exceeding 535 million yuan, representing about 1% of the total share capital [1] - The company plans to repurchase shares worth 1-2 billion yuan to support the employee stock ownership plan and has announced plans to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [5] Industry Analysis - The domestic excavator sales in China for January-February 2025 reached 17,045 units, a year-on-year increase of 51% [2] - The CMI index for March 2025 was 128.56, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase and a 21% month-on-month increase, indicating a market entering a peak season [2] - The average working hours for major construction machinery products in March 2025 increased by 7% year-on-year and 94% month-on-month [3] Financial Performance - SANY's excavator revenue accounted for 39% of its total revenue in the first half of 2024, indicating strong earnings potential during industry upturns [4] - The company's net profit margin improved to 8.6% in Q1-Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.1 percentage points, with operating cash flow reaching 12.4 billion yuan, up 145% year-on-year [4] - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 78.194 billion yuan, 94.397 billion yuan, and 115.568 billion yuan, respectively, with net profit forecasts of 5.8 billion yuan, 8.484 billion yuan, and 11.011 billion yuan [6][8]