兖矿能源（600188）：量增价减业绩平稳落地，关注2025年量增兑现节奏

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Views - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.4 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 5.7 billion yuan (-28.4% YoY, adjusted). In Q4 2024, the net profit was 3 billion yuan, down 0.8 billion yuan (-21.3% QoQ) and down 1.5 billion yuan (-33.2% YoY, adjusted) [2][6] - The company plans to produce approximately 155 to 160 million tons of commercial coal in 2025, expecting a year-on-year increase of over 13 million tons, which is a significant growth rate among leading coal enterprises [12] - The expected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is projected to be 10.2 billion, 10.9 billion, and 11.3 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 13.8x, 12.9x, and 12.5x based on the closing price on April 1 [2][12] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 139.1 billion yuan, with a gross profit of 49.8 billion yuan, representing a gross margin of 36% [17] - The average selling price of self-produced coal in 2024 was 656 yuan/ton, down 129 yuan/ton (-16% YoY) [12][7] - The company declared a cash dividend of 7.7 billion yuan, with an A-share dividend payout ratio of 53.59%, resulting in a dividend yield of 5.7% as of April 1 [2][6] Production and Sales - In Q4 2024, the company produced and sold 36.68 million tons and 33.54 million tons of self-produced coal, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 5% and 3% [7] - The company’s domestic and international coal sales in Q4 2024 were 21.61 million tons and 11.93 million tons, respectively, both showing year-on-year increases of 3% [7] Cost and Profitability - The cost of self-produced coal in Q4 2024 was 324 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton (-8% YoY), while the gross profit per ton was 313 yuan, down 99 yuan/ton (-24% YoY) [12][7] - The company aims to maintain a cost reduction trend while managing production costs effectively [12]