Changjiang Securities(SZ:000783) Changjiang Securities·2025-04-06 13:44Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [12] Core Viewpoints - Since March, regulatory authorities have introduced a series of policies to support consumer finance, including plans to launch fiscal interest subsidies, increase consumer loan limits, and introduce consumer loan relief policies, aiming to boost consumption recovery through credit policies [2][6] - Historically, credit directions emphasized by policies have generally achieved high growth, with a forecast that consumer loan growth will rebound to 7.0% by 2025 [2][21] - Current retail loan risks have not yet established a turning point, necessitating attention to the progress of economic recovery and improvement in household income [2][10] Summary by Sections Policy Measures - Regulatory measures since March include increasing consumer loan limits and providing fiscal interest subsidies to alleviate current expenditure pressures [15] - The focus on consumer finance aims to enhance credit supply and optimize management, encouraging banks to increase personal consumer loan issuance while managing risks [15] Historical Context - Historical trends show that policy-driven credit support in sectors like manufacturing and small enterprises has led to sustained growth cycles, with large banks playing a key role in policy transmission [6][7] Consumer Loan Trends - Consumer loan growth has slowed during the current economic and real estate downturn, with growth rates dropping to 4.1% in 2022 and rebounding to 9.4% in 2023, but expected to decline to 6.2% in 2024 [8][9] - The demand for non-housing consumer loans remains sluggish, with a net decrease of 161.6 billion yuan in early 2025 [9] Future Outlook - Measures such as extending loan terms and increasing credit limits are expected to drive consumer loan growth, with a forecast of 7.0% growth in 2025 [9][21] - However, genuine consumption recovery requires improvements in household income expectations, alleviation of employment pressures, and enhancement of social welfare systems [9] Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape is expected to evolve, with state-owned banks and city commercial banks likely to lead in growth due to increased lending efforts and low-interest products [10] - Regulatory emphasis on protecting net interest margins and risk pricing principles will ensure that consumer loan rates remain above 3.0% [10] Asset Quality - Retail loan risks are anticipated to rise due to household income pressures, with increasing non-performing loan rates across various products [10][27] - Short-term measures to extend loan terms and provide relief are seen as ways to mitigate asset quality fluctuations, but the overall risk trend remains a concern [10]